Daily Archives: September 14, 2017


Based on the long range predictions for hurricane Irma I have concluded that they are not very good for the American model nor the “superior” European model.

One long range prediction was that Irma would travel up the east coast of Florida along I-95, the next prediction was that the eye of the hurricane would hit Miami. Next the European model predicted that Irma would vertically hit central Florida. What finally happened was that the eye hit Key West, hit Naples, and worked its way up western Florida.

The computer model predictions were also bad when the trajectory of the hurricane hit land masses. The category 4, 3, 2, and 1 predictions were inaccurate with a bias towards high category 4 long range forecasts. When the Cuban coast was hit the hurricane dropped from category 4 to 3 and later went back up to 4. The long range prediction of a category 4 all the way to Tampa was also inaccurate as it headed up western Florida and quickly dropped to a category 3 then 2 then 1.

I am thankful that all that Daytona Beach had to handle was tropical storm conditions since the devastation of Irma across Florida was very large as a whole.

Conclusion: Long range hurricane predictions are inaccurate and so are category long range predictions inaccurate, especially over big land masses.


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