Tag Archives: circumstances

UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 1938!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 1901!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 1800!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 1684!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 1421!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 1409!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 1292!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 1233!!!

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20 COGNITIVE BIASES!!!

cognitive bias is often an impulsive mistake in reasoning, evaluating, remembering, decision-making, or other thinking process, often occurring as a result of holding onto one’s preferences, beliefs, emotions, and prejudices regardless of contrary information.

Cognitive biases are impulsive thinking biases which often make you reach the wrong conclusions and lead you into making inaccurate statements. Reality is altered by these cognitive biases and your thinking and decision making process becomes less than perfect often creating mistakes or problems where there shouldn’t be any. Often impulsive emotions are a major reason why the cognitive biases exist in the first place. Emotional impulsive reactions are habitual ways of thinking which dominate the decision making process for most humans and do not require much if any thinking before reacting. Most humans don’t reason or think but are impulsively judgmental to a large degree.

Authority and Respect Bias:

Worth mentioning is that humans tend to be persuaded by or have a greater belief or trust in authority figures and humans that they like, admire, or respect.

Confirmation Bias:

We love to agree with people who agree with us. That is why we only visit websites and read articles that express our political opinions, and why we mostly interact with humans who hold similar views and tastes. We tend to avoid or ignore individuals, groups, and news sources that make us feel uncomfortable or insecure about our views and preferences.

Ingroup or Herd Instinct Bias:

Somewhat similar to the confirmation bias is the ingroup bias, an indication of our innate tribalistic or herd instinct tendencies. This innate impulsive bias helps us to make tighter bonds with people in our own group but performs the exact opposite function for those on the outside. It makes us suspicious, fearful, and even disrespectful and contemptuous of others. The ingroup bias causes us to overestimate the abilities and value of our own immediate group at the expense of people we don’t really know.

Bandwagon Bias:

This is really a takeoff of the ingroup bias which is a tendency for humans to want to go along with the majority in terms of opinions and behavior rather than be the exception to the rule and develop your own opinions and behavior. Humans in general tend to be conformists rather than rebellious non conformists.

Previous Event Bias:

Humans have a tendency to place greater importance on previous events and assume that if something occurred in the past then the chances for repetition of that event in the future are more likely. Thus gamblers erroneously believe that they are on a winning streak despite the fact that the odds against winning are always the same.

Status Quo Bias:

This is our tendency to continue old habits and not try to change to new and perhaps better ones. We have a tendency to order the same types of meals in restaurants and experiment rarely with new choices. We smoke the same brand of cigarettes despite just as good and cheaper ones and stick with brands that we know in general and don’t go for generic equivalents which are just as good. The general summarized attitude is “If it isn’t broken, then don’t fix it.”

Impulse Bias:

We have a tendency to buy what we want in the short run but sometimes buy what we need in the long duration. We prefer to buy donuts and chocolate now but buy healthier foods for the next week’s consumption. Immediate gratification often wins out over delayed gratification and studies have found that those who can delay gratification do better in life and are more responsible.

Inaccurate Generalizations Bias:

This happens when you take just one example and make it into a general rule. Rarely is this attempt at generalization accurate and it is often faulty too. We may hear of one or two women involved in a car accident and make the erroneous generalization that women are worse drivers than men.

Stereotype Bias:

You make decisions biased by ethnic, gender, appearance, or professional stereotypes. You may be asked if both are qualified who would you hire as a car mechanic or nurse, a male or a female? The stereotype of male mechanics and female nurses is hard to overcome and is reflected in hiring practices which theoretically should not be discriminatory. The problem with stereotyping is that generalized group characteristics are unjustly forced on individuals who may greatly deviate from stereotyped group norms and deserve just evaluation.

Always or Never Thinking Bias:

You are too absolute in your thinking and think too many things are yes or no, all or nothing, black or white, always or never, and seldom sometimes, frequently, infrequently or grey. You may believe that the sun never shines during a rain which is generally true in northern areas. However, in Florida, in the summertime there are often 5 or 10 minute showers with the sun shining through the clouds.

Blaming Bias:

Before you uncover the reason for a mistake or a new problem you quickly blame others or yourself for it. There are many cases where circumstances are to blame and no one particular human.

Denial Bias:

Before you uncover the reason for a mistake or new problem you quickly deny that it was your fault or sometimes even deny that it was someone else’s fault. If you trust or like someone a lot then your first reaction may be that they are not to blame for a mistake or problem.

Rule Fanaticism Bias:

You strongly believe that rules are absolute and should be followed unquestioningly all the time. You harshly criticize yourself and others for not following them even though realistically there are exceptions to these rules which should seriously be considered. There are one or more circumstances under which  the rules can be broken but you refuse to accept this reality.

Negative or Positive bias:

You focus too much on either the negative or positive factors and fail to analyze both the negative and the positive events and possibilities. Viewing the local news with all the examples of crime may lead you to pessimistically conclude that crime is getting much worse and you may take extra steps to guard against burglars and other thieves. Negative examples have about 3 times the emotional impact on you than neutral or positive events but there are still many optimists who focus on the positive rather than the negative and feel that things are getting better or at least staying the same.

Pessimistic Fear Bias:

You fear that mostly bad things will happen and often fear the worst case scenario. Being pessimistic about the way things are going in the world is common but it can become a major handicap in your own life if you live in fear of very bad things happening to you and worry about this on a daily basis.

Personalization Bias:

You take things too personally and get easily offended and feel that what humans do and say is a direct reaction to your behavior.

Mind Reading Bias:

You assume that you know what others are thinking without verifying the thoughts with questioning. You may falsely assume that someone is sad rather than tired and greedy about money rather than merely selfinterested and desiring affirmation from others.

Emotional Bias:

You assume that your emotions have validity and that others probably feel the same way that you do. Nowhere is emotional bias more prevalent than in discussions or arguments about religion, politics, and sports.

Fairness Bias:

You think that your idea of fairness is workable and preferable because fundamentally it is your opinion.

Miraculous Thinking Bias:

You think that getting lucky, getting smarter, getting wealthier, finding a mentor, etc. will solve all your problems instantly.

There are more cognitive biases than just 20. If you want more information on cognitive biases done in a slightly different manner then view this link which presents 25 and 12 cognitive biases on YouTube.

UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 977!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 863!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 869!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 706!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 650!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 631!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 615!!!

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THE TRUTH ABOUT INAPPROPRIATE*

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Inappropriate:  v. to add to and/or to subtract from a subset(s) a different subset(s) and not being normative and/or subjectively acceptable for the circumstances which sometimes also involves disobeying etiquette and/or an organizational rule(s)

Inappropriate behavior means that you have deviated too much from accepted social norms or that someone subjectively thinks it is unacceptable behavior for the circumstances and an enforcing sense for the opinion may be that you have also disobeyed an etiquette and/or organizational rule(s).

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THE TRUTH ABOUT INEVITABLE*

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Inevitable:  adj. an event(s) which is believed to be100% probable at some point in the future despite the possibility of unpredictable circumstances which might realistically change the probability to less than 100%

It is inevitable that you will die some day and that the sun will rise in the morning on into the foreseeable future. There is some 100% certainty about some important things but in most human lives filled with all kinds of different events there is more uncertainty than inevitability.

Many marriages don’t last that long, few jobs are secure for a lifetime in the fast technologically changing world, and world peace is still threatened on occasion by terrorist and revolutionary outbreaks. The only thing which seems inevitable in human lives is that change will happen sooner or later.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT SELFCONSCIOUSNESS+

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Selfconsciousness: n. being knowledgeable about and sensing one’s own actions and/or thoughts on circumstances

 

Most adults react habitually and impulsively to most things and any selfconsciousness that they may have has been programmed into their brain by early prior experiences. Being selfconscious about one’s looks and about social interactions is a learned behavior early in life and follows most humans throughout their lives and only changes gradually if at all.

 

If you are frequently asking yourself if you look good or whether what you said to someone was the right thing then it is your selfconsciousness asserting itself over and over again. You may feel that you need to look good and behave well in public but may have ongoing doubts about whether you looked as good as you could or whether you behaved appropriately.

 

Humans who really look good and behave well in public are usually confident of their impact and are conscious of their power to please. Confident adults are seldom plagued with selfdoubt and are not captive to the social fears, selfdoubt, and corresponding selfconsciousness which afflicts the common imperfect human.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT REASONABLE SUSPICION*

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Suspicion: n. judging intuitively with little evidence that a subset(s) is a probable cause of an event(s) in the past and/or the future

 

Guess: v. to make a judgment and/or estimation without adequate knowledge for certainty

 

Hunch: n. bad intuitive guessing usually not based on adequate facts

 

REASONABLE SUSPICION: n. A subjective intuitive guess that a subset(s) (has a higher than 50% probability of existence and/or is a probable cause of an event(s) in the past and/or the future)

 

Humans are not statistical mathematical machines who can calculate statistical probabilities and differentiate between a chance 50% occurrence and one greater than a chance occurrence. Most human judgments by law enforcers are made based on prior experience under similar circumstances and are largely probable guesses based on prior experience(s).

It is foreseeable that in the future robot policemen will be doing police word so I left in the 50% part of the definition so that computer policemen of the future will be able to make statistical probability guesses based on the evidence. However, such a situation is far into the future so most policemen should not worry that their jobs will soon be in jeopardy like all the other jobs being discontinued in society due to obsolescence.

 

A new officer of the law is less competent to make a judgment of reasonable suspicion than an experienced officer and will make a larger number of mistakes in judging reasonable suspicion. Reasonable suspicion is an intuitive guess that something exists.

 

Are all officers of the law are equal in competence to assess reasonable suspicion? No, the seasoned veterans are the ones most qualified to make guesses about probable law breaking or criminal behavior.  Are all officers equally competent to make decisions in the field? No.

 

If you are a young and inexperienced officer starting out then you are not equal in competence to one that has been on the police force for 10 or 20 years observing and evaluating human behavior. A young officer will make worse guesses about what is actually going on in reality and that is his or hers major weakness or flaw in starting out in the profession.

 

As a young officer starting out and asked what the probable cause for being stopped and interrogated is? He or she will be less competent in coming up with the right reason(s) and the reasons must be more certain than just hunches or bad guesses.

 

What is the probable cause and how many years have you been on the police force are two questions which are very valid and must be answered by any officer of the law if asked.

 

Open container laws are unjust and just because there is an open container of beer or wine with any amount of drink in it does not mean that you should be subject to a fine because the ultimate test is a breath test to see if the human has exceeded the legal limit for drinking behind the wheel or not.

 

In the near future a request by an officer to take a breathalyzer test for weaving in traffic with an open container will have to be obeyed since factual proof is necessary before any fine is assessed.

 

I personally like to drink some beer while driving rather than soda or some other drink and I should not have to put up with overly zealous onlookers calling 911 to notify the police that someone is drinking an alcoholic beverage behind the wheel of a car and wasting taxpayer’s money by making an officer stop the vehicle or follow it. I don’t like to secretly drink beer within a bag to hide the fact that I am drinking an alcoholic beverage behind the wheel.

 

There is a great difference between drinking while driving and being drunk while driving! Sipping a beer behind the wheel is probable cause for stopping someone and interrogating them? No. There is not even reasonable suspicion unless the driver is also violating some other factual traffic law like driving too slow and much under the speed limit.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT APATHY***

Apathy

Apathy: n. sensing and/or showing minimal motivation

Apathy is being minimally motivated to react or act on an event(s) which  exists in our lives.

Voter apathy is frequently a fact of life and the reason may be that human’s have more important priorities in their lives or that they genuinely feel that their vote will not make a significant difference in their lives so they choose not to vote.

Apathy has a tendency to disappear if you sense that your actions will have some effect on the outcome of a situation and will benefit you in some way.

The powerless who are not struggling to survive are frequently the most apathetic humans because they sense that they have nothing hugely important to do which will change their lives for the better.

Personal and national crises frequently shock you out of your apathy.

 

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6 IMPORTANT TRUTHS ABOUT SUPER SUCCESSFUL HUMANS

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Many of us think that all that you have to do to become super successful is to change your bad habits and adopt some good constructive ones. The truth is that the odds of becoming super successful are stacked against you unless you are born “lucky” and have some of the following characteristics and circumstances.

 

You are born to rich smart parents

Money and a very good memory is a great help which doesn’t guarantee super success but it can make your journey to success much easier if you apply yourself properly and learn useful social and job skills. High IQ just means that you have a very good memory which you should be able to apply to the real world if you have smarts or practical brain processing ability. There are idiot savants with phenomenal memory who can’t use their great gift in society very well but this is an extreme exception to the rule that very good memory and talent rules.

 

Your parents are usefully educated

A definite asset is having smart parents who can be exceptional role models and it also means that they probably studied hard and had better than average memories.

 

You were born attractive

Attractive humans in general earn 3% to 4% more than not so attractive ones. An investment in plastic surgery may be a realistic option if you have some glaring unattractive features.

 

You are an only child

Statistics show that single offspring imitate adult parents more and are socially more mature sooner as a result. They also tend to stay in school longer and frequently have more self-esteem.

 

You are born in or move to the right country

You need to be born in or to travel to a country which offers entrepreneurial opportunity to the new generation based on effort and merit such as the US and China.

 

You are male and white

Feminists and ethnic groups may disagree with this fact and in the near future maybe gender and ethnic origin will not matter that much in the struggle for super success. Talent, merit, and effort may dominate the landscape of the super successful in the future without much gender or ethnic bias but we still have a long way to go to achieve those idealistic goals.

CONCLUSION:

There are some exceptions to the rule but the super successful frequently are  very talented, have very good memories, are attractive, usefully educated, hardworking, and socially competent individuals. The talent, very good memory, and attractiveness you are born with and the useful education, hard work, and social competence is something which you must acquire in your life or you will not become super successful.

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