Tag Archives: Israel

Analysis of the Israeli and Palestinian conflict

There are fundamentally two potential solutions to the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

One is to incorporate Palestinian territory into Israel and the other is to peacefully coexist with a Palestinian nation which incudes the West Bank and Gaza.

Enlarging Israel would be too much of a political and financial shock on the nation since incorporating 5.2 million Palestinians into Israel with a population of 8.8 million would create a majority Arab population which would take over political control and devastate the economy.

Since the first solution is untenable if it were done overnight there still exists the possibility of a slow trickle migration into Israel but the long duration result would still be a majority Arab state with an impoverished West Bank and Gaza existing primarily on foreign aid.

The first solution seems highly unlikely to realistically come to pass since Jews living peacefully and Democratically with majority Muslim Palestinians in political control and not getting into violent political squabbles is probably a fairy tale scenario.

So we are back to solution two which is the state of affairs right now. How do you peacefully coexist with an independent Palestinian state next door which has a terrorist group Hamas who wants to destroy you as a nation? Palestine has the Fatah led by Mahmoud Abbas who recognizes the state of Israel but has tenuous political control.

The shocking fact is that Palestine can’t exist as an independent country and support 5.2 million people on a territory which is resource poor and ecologically damaged beyond repair, especially Gaza. Palestine is very desperate and depends on foreign aid for its current survival.

Here are some shocking economic statistics about Gaza:

Gaza profits from the international aid to Palestinians. Palestinian imports in 2019 were 5.78 billion and exports were 1.07 billion or the Palestinians miraculously spent about 5.5 times more than they earned and the large difference was made possible by international supplementary aid. So Gaza and the Palestinians are an economic basket case almost totally dependent on welfare from the international community.

The GDP in 2019 for the Gaza Strip was 705 million dollars or about 336 dollars a year per capita with over 80% living below the poverty line. Without foreign aid the Gazan’s would have to survive on much less than a dollar a day or frankly they would realistically almost all be in starvation mode.

Towards the end of 2020, exacerbated by covid, the official unemployment rate in the Gaza Strip was 82%.

Tap water in Gaza is salty and polluted from sea water intrusion into a very low pure water table so that water is not fit to drink. Pbs.org states that by 2020 due to water pollution and a lack of drinkable water Gaza may become “uninhabitable”. So in the near future there will be approximately 2.1 million Gazan’s without a place to call their devastated parched land a permanent home.

Indefinite aid to Gaza and the West Bank or a mass migration elsewhere are the only long term solutions which don’t sound like feasible solutions at all. No country that I know of wants Palestinians to move in and hoping for indefinite foreign aid means that they will become a perennial beggar state with a very uncertain future.

The Palestinians are not self sufficient economically nor can they realistically be without becoming the poorest nation in the world. So far a struggle against a fictitiously oppressive Israel has been their only propaganda recourse to try and maintain necessary sympathetic international, especially Arab, economic support.

Israel has already decapitated the leadership of Hamas. There is a tenuous cease fire and if Israel is smart it should insist on a right to physically monitor Gaza so that no more rockets are located there in the future. An even smarter move would be to insist that the terrorist arm Hamas be made politically illegal in Palestine.

The real long range survival problem for Israel is the possibility that the Iranian Hezbollah will provide the Palestinians with a nuclear tipped drone or rocket which can penetrate the Iron Dome which the Israelis currently have as a rather effective defense mechanism.

Unless Israel is permitted to physically monitor military activity in Gaza, I frankly don’t see a permanent peaceful cease fire resolution which will last before some kind of a violent flareup happens again. The Palestinians are very desperate people who periodically resort to violence as almost the only way to attract attention and gain world sympathy and economic support for their chronic economic plight.

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SOME GOOD OUTCOMES OF REGIONAL VIOLENT CONFLICT

violence

Many parts of the world are competing politically, economically, religiously and the natural consequence is that violent outbreaks are still a fact of life where arms are readily available.

Whether the attack on the twin towers was foreign terrorism or a conspiracy the fact is that it precipitated counter measures which improved airline security, better intelligence or spying on citizens, on legal and illegal aliens,  improved intelligence gathering expertise in the Arab world, and ensured for a time that the oil wealth of Iraq would not be used to fund terrorist activities worldwide.

The Israeli Palestine conflict seems never ending but it improves military counter measures against rockets such as the iron dome of protection which Israel has and has worked almost flawlessly. Yes, eventually the Palestinians may start using stealth drones to deliver their explosive payloads and so counter measures will have to be found to exclude such a threat. Yes, some innocent lives and soldier lives are lost in the process but that is the price which sometimes has to be paid for progress and more future security against violent attacks.

After the overthrow of the Russian puppet Ukrainian leader Russia feared that its economic and political dominance in Ukraine could be severely impaired. It used military force to invade the Crimea and started violent countermeasures in Eastern Ukraine. Since Russia supplies Europe with much energy it was emboldened to make a military move and not fear total economic sanctions from the western world.

Its success in supplying Syria with arms and maintaining the Assad regime through violent means may also have emboldened Putin to continue to use violent means as a political tool. This is an awakening call and warning that large scale economic dependence on a tyrant country may imply the use of aggressive force at a later date. That Nato is still a necessary military organization in Europe has been reaffirmed.

All localized military conflict eventually ends and the dominant military force usually continues to rule the area on into the future. Unfortunately much political power is still enforced with the overt use of force in this world and it is just a fact of life which we have to live with.

 

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