Tag Archives: predictions

THE TRUTH ABOUT POTENTIAL CO2 INCREASES IN THE FUTURE!!!

This article appeared in the American Thinker 2/11/20

Climate Science does about-face, dials back ‘worst-case scenario’

A comment published last week in Nature, a leading scientific journal, has thrown a monkey wrench into hundreds of studies and media stories that previously predicted dire climate consequences in the future due to increased carbon dioxide (CO2) in our atmosphere.

The consequences were predicted by a computer model called Representative Carbon Pathways (RCP), and the worst-case scenario model, RCP8.5, had been cited more than 2,500 times in scientific journals and in hundreds of media stories as the primary need for “urgent action” on climate.  Predictions from the RCP8.5 model suggested maximum global temperature increases of nearly 6°C (10.8°F) by the year 2100, shown in Figure 1.


Figure 1.  Image credit: Neil Craik, University of Waterloo.

In the original scientific paper, RCP8.5 had just a slim 3-percent chance of becoming reality.  Since climate alarmists (and some climate scientists) prefer to preach future doom to spur action, the predictions of RCP8.5 have become known as the “business-as-usual” scenario, even though it was nowhere close to that.

However, in a stunning walk-back, climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of the Breakthrough Institute bucked the climate consensus and said the RCP8.5 worst-case scenario is unlikely to happen.  The reason?  We can’t get there, given how much fossil fuel is being used now.  The model assumes a 500-percent increase in the use of coal, which is now considered highly unlikely, since coal use has dropped significantly, as seen in Figure 2.


Figure 2.  Image credit: United States Energy Information Administration (EIA).

With this new information that excludes the worst-case RCP8.5 scenario, rather than predicting a future world that warms by 6°C (10.8°F), climate alarmists will go to the next lower scenario, RCP6, with warming by 2100 around 3°C (5.4°F).

In typical climate alarmist fashion, however, the two authors of this Nature article say the lower temperatures due to this drop-off of coal use and the exclusion of RCP8.5 aren’t guaranteed.  What’s the reason?  Well, scientists are still uncertain how sensitive global temperatures are to a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere.  The value showing climate sensitivity, known as the Charney Sensitivity, still isn’t known for certain — even though it’s more than 40 years after it was first introduced in 1979 by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (chaired by Jule Charney).  Charney estimated climate sensitivity to be 3°C (5.4 °F), give or take 1.5°C (2.7°F).

Without knowing the true climate warming response to increased CO2, essentially, all climate models become a crapshoot.  It is a glaring illustration of just how imprecise climate science really is.

But get this: new climate models are being used for the next set of major projections due from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change next year, known as AR6.  Those models are said to show that temperatures are more sensitive to CO2 than previously thought.

Because of AR6, the higher numbers of the worst-case scenario are likely to be back on the table, along with continued calls for climate action in the form of reductions, alternate tech, and carbon dioxide taxation.

There is another fly in the ointment: even if the atmosphere turns out to be more sensitive to CO2 than they thought, it is unlikely that the world will ever get to a doubling for CO2 in the atmosphere — the level on which climate sensitivity estimates are based.

Climate scientist Dr. Roy Spencer did a model calculation the same week as this new Nature article was released and discovered something very surprising. Using data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projecting that energy-based emissions of CO2 will grow at 0.6 percent per year until 2050, Spencer plugged that data into a climate model.  With the reasonable EIA assumptions regarding CO2 emissions, the climate model does not even reach a doubling of atmospheric CO2, but instead reaches an equilibrium CO2 concentration of 541 ppm in the mid-2200s.

Spencer writes:

[T]he result is that, given the latest projections of CO2 emissions, future CO2 concentrations will not only be well below the RCP8.5 scenario, but might not even be as high as RCP4.5, with atmospheric CO2 concentrations possibly not even reach a doubling (560 ppm) of estimated pre-Industrial levels (280 ppm) before leveling off.  This result is even without future reductions in CO2 emissions, which is a possibility as new energy technologies become available.”

The RCP4.5 scenario suggests a range of warming of about 1.7–3.2°C (3–5.8°F), which doesn’t constitute a “climate emergency” and may even be beneficial to humankind.  After all, humanity didn’t do well during cold periods in history, and another global ice age would certainly be ruinous.

With this broad uncertainty about what the future climate will be, the bottom line on climate science predictions is well served by the great Yogi Berra, who famously said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Anthony Watts (think@heartland.org) is former television meteorologist and senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute.  He operates the most viewed website on climate in the world, WattsUpWithThat.com.

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LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES ARE NOT VERY ACCURATE!!!

Based on the long range predictions for hurricane Irma I have concluded that they are not very good for the American model nor the “superior” European model.

One long range prediction was that Irma would travel up the east coast of Florida along I-95, the next prediction was that the eye of the hurricane would hit Miami. Next the European model predicted that Irma would vertically hit central Florida. What finally happened was that the eye hit Key West, hit Naples, and worked its way up western Florida.

The computer model predictions were also bad when the trajectory of the hurricane hit land masses. The category 4, 3, 2, and 1 predictions were inaccurate with a bias towards high category 4 long range forecasts. When the Cuban coast was hit the hurricane dropped from category 4 to 3 and later went back up to 4. The long range prediction of a category 4 all the way to Tampa was also inaccurate as it headed up western Florida and quickly dropped to a category 3 then 2 then 1.

I am thankful that all that Daytona Beach had to handle was tropical storm conditions since the devastation of Irma across Florida was very large as a whole.

Conclusion: Long range hurricane predictions are inaccurate and so are category long range predictions inaccurate, especially over big land masses.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT REVELATION***

revelation1

Revelation: n. making visible and/or known a subset(s) which has been hidden and/or secret and frequently seems surprising and/or dramatic

Reveal: v. to make visible and/or known a subset(s) which has been hidden and/or secret

Revelation is finding out the secret practices of a cult or other secret organization which would probably be a little strange or unusual and frequently surprising or even dramatic if there were sacrificial offerings of animal or even human life in the rituals.

Predictions of the future historically used to be thought of as revelations with Armageddon mixed in the predictions for dramatic effect but they are not true revelations because they have not been hidden or secret for thousands of years.

Companies and individuals reveal their plans for the future but these are not commonly thought of as revelations since they are usually not that secret nor surprising. Revealing the secret recipe for a food or drink may be interesting but rarely a dramatic revelation.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT CERTAINTY

Certainty-in-Marketing

There are some things in this world which we are 100% certain of or we believe that they definitely existed in the past and will definitely exist in the future for a relatively long duration.  Certainty is being without any doubt.

We believe that George Washington, the first president of the United States, existed with certainty and we probably believe that the house which we live in will exist with certainty unless it burns down or is destroyed in some way. Most of us are certain that we will die physically at some point in the future and certain that the universe will exist in some form on into the distant future.

Many of us crave certainty and sub consciously would like to know with certainty what lies ahead for us in the future.  Unfortunately many things in life are uncertain and the further that you delve into the past or future the less certain we are of what actually existed or what will exist in the future. We are not certain how long our job will last or how long our family members will live and most things in life are probabilities which are less than 100% certain.

Fortune tellers, horoscope writers, new and old prophets, and seers fascinate some of us because they attempt to predict the future for us and some of us pay money for such personal prognostications.

Certainty: n. intensely believing (a subset(s) is 100% probable in the future and/or past) and/or (a subset(s) is completely true in the past and/or with a very large probability of truth and existence in the future)

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