Tag Archives: probability

UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 1649!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 1435!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 1197!!!

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WHAT DOES BEING SMART REALLY MEAN???

UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 991!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 878!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 638!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 571!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 513!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 393!!!

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UPDATED NEW QUOTE BY ULDIS SPROGIS 230!!!

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THE TRUTH ABOUT CONTROVERSIAL*

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Controversial: adj. a subset(s) with a large probability for causing public disagreement because many are for and many against samer subset(s)

A 50%/50% split is potentially the greatest source of controversy because about half are for and about half are against something. Realistically controversy is also a measure of how loud or vociferous a minority is because even greater controversy is possible if powerful minorities voice their opinions publicly and try to force them on a majority who often resists strenuously.

 

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THE TRUTH ABOUT ASCERTAIN+

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Ascertain: v. to determine certainty in a subset(s)

When you are ascertaining something then you are trying to determine how certain something is or how probable something is.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT CURRENT+

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Current: adj. a relatively small duration existing between past and future time but realistically it is existing in the near past and having a relatively large probability of existing in the near future

Current events are events which existed just prior to the present time but when you speak of current behavior then you are considering something which will last on into the near foreseeable future. Current things generally have recently existed in time and there is a great probability that they will continue to exist in near future time. A good way of thinking about it is to assume that current things are existing now and will probably continue to exist into the near future.

The problem with the word current is that it conflicts or has the same sound but different meaning as the noun in electric current or the river current so the new different sounding word recommended for the adjective current is curp or curp events. Disagree? Then come up with a better word for the adjective current.

Curp: adj.  a relatively small duration existing between past and future time but realistically it is existing in the near past and having a relatively large probability of existing in the near future

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THE TRUTH ABOUT EXPERIMENT*

experiment

Experiment: v. to use the scientific method to reach a (judgment(s) and/or conclusion(s)) and/or to determine the probability of a cause(s) and effect(s)

Science has made remarkable progress because of the scientific method, mathematical rigor, and experimentation verifying that results can be duplicated in the lab and in effect proving that a theory or formula is valid or true.

Outside the lab reality is different and not so mathematical and only probability statements can be made about the possible cause and effect relationships between often vaguely defined variables.

There is no certainty in statistics and no true cause effect relationships which can be verified over and over again with mathematical accuracy. Social and political science are sciences in name only and do not meet rigorous scientific standards.

Statistics on political polls are a perfect example. A poll can vary from day to day and the wording of the questions asked greatly determine the truthfulness of the answers. Some questions are so vague or misleading that humans may decide to answer the way they are expected to answer and not how they truly feel about an issue.

Financial wealth, occupation, married or unmarried status, age, education, region of the country, and differing beliefs and opinions all make polling potentially very unreliable with bad predictive value. Even statistics and polls on who you will vote for can change almost overnight due to some political statement a candidate may make which changes the opinion of many voters overnight.

You can consider questions asked humans and the answers gotten as experiments on them to determine cause and effect relationships for them. If they are not lying then your results or useful information about an individual will be quite reliable but if the person is deceitful or lies then your conclusions about him or her will be inaccurate and not very useful.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT GAMBLE*

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Gamble: v. to take chances where the objective is getting to a goal which usually has much less than a 50% probability of existing and frequently a profit is hoped for

With the exception of blackjack were card counting works in your favor odds wise, without cheating gambling in business establishments has worse odds than flipping a coin which is a 50% probability where theoretically you break even and don’t win any money or don’t lose any in the long duration. Gambling legally is a long duration losing proposition and although you may win once in a while it does not pay in the long run because you lose more often than you win.

Private gambling such as in poker may be a lucrative way to make some money if you are very skilled in reading facial expressions and find plenty of suckers to play against you who lose most of the time.

The higher the promised reward the less likely you are to win and playing the lottery for huge dollar amounts often has odds of one in ten million so this is in reality a guarantee that you won’t win no matter how often you bet.

Gambling can be very addictive for some humans and it is a major reason why families with addicted gamblers often lead miserable financial lives.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT HOPE*

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Hope: v. to desire a goal(s) and/or an event(s) which frequently doesn’t have a great probability of existence in the future

Some of us have realistic hopes for the future but unfortunately many of us are burdened with disappointing unrealistic hopes which never are achieved nor can realistically be achieved. It is one thing to exist in everlasting unrealistic hope and not do much to achieve that end and it is another more prudent approach to actively work at trying to make realistic hopes a reality.

The “failures” in life sometimes place their last hopes in luck or the lottery and the more successful ones try mightily to improve themselves and their achievements in life no matter what their age.

Most of us should be thankful that we don’t exist in circumstances where our primary hope is just to survive to live another day.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT INCLINATION*

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Inclination: n. preferring one or relatively few choices where two or more

exist as possible choices  and/or an increased probability towards a subset(s)

If there is an increased probability that you will choose one thing over another then it can be said that you are inclined towards that choice. Preferring one choice over all the others means that you are inclined towards that choice.

Your inclination may be a personal choice and after some contemplation you may decide to go with a different choice so it can sometimes be said that your first inclination changed to another after some thought and contemplation.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT PROACTIVE+

Proactive

Proactive adj. trying to actively and personally control the probability of a future event(s) by making and achieving a goal(s)

Being proactive means getting actively involved yourself with goal making and achieving thus trying to personally control the situation or circumstances. If you are not being proactive then chances are great that your personal involvement is rather minimal in trying to control a future event(s).

The basic difference in being proactive versus reactive is that you plan ahead in the proactive case and just react to events in the reactive case.

 

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THE TRUTH ABOUT SUSCEPTIBILITY+

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Susceptibility: n. a probability of being affected and/or injured by a subset(s)

Just living life makes us susceptible or open to good and bad humans and good and bad circumstances. If we do risky or dangerous behaviors then we are more susceptible to failure and injury. We can try to avoid risky and dangerous behaviors but even with the best of intentions and planning some bad things will happen whether we want them or not.

All of us are susceptible to temptations of all kinds which cause us to eat and drink improperly and sometimes associate with the wrong humans which can be the source of much unanticipated unhappiness and misery.

Having a good moral upbringing will make us less susceptible to immoral behavior which is sometimes a temptation in this tolerant western society where it sometimes seems that the clever deceivers and liars are the ones benefiting disproportionately compared to  the moral law abiding citizens.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT UNCOMMON*

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Uncommon: adj. a subset(s) with a probability of existence much less than 10%

 

It is time to give uncommon and very uncommon some percentage guidelines so there is some tangible difference between the words and it is not just vague references without much meaning.

We could probably all agree that very uncommon would be about one out of a hundred or one percent whereas uncommon would definitely be 10% or less or about one out of 10 or less.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT UNFORGETTABLE*

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Unforgettable: adj. a mental subset(s) which has a large existing probability into the future until death

 

When you have a very intense emotional experience for a relatively short or long duration the chances are that you will remember that experience for a very long time.

 

When the experience is so memorable that you will remember it for a lifetime then it is called an unforgettable experience. Yes, Altzheimer’s in old age may erase all memory of the unforgettable experience but a normal functioning brain will usually remember an unforgettable experience until death.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT USELESSNESS+

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Uselessness: n. doing a subset(s) and the probability of achieving a goal(s) is zero

If something is useless then you either have to throw it out or recycle the parts for reuse since it is usually not repairable. In effect you can’t do anything or accomplish anything with a useless item or device and achieve any desired goal(s) which you may have in mind.

Similarly a useless human is one who is so handicapped that he or she can’t do anything on their own and needs assistance with almost everything except perhaps for eating, drinking, urinating, and defecating. We generally don’t kill useless humans but permit them to survive as long as possible in the western nations without euthenasia or murdering them.

Humans can also feel useless if asked to do a skill or task which they don’t have the ability to do but usually such humans are not useless for everything unless they are destitute and unemployable and need government assistance to survive.

Trying to achieve a goal(s) and not knowing how to do so is a useless attempt(s) unless you can learn from failure, try again in a different way and sometimes finally succeed after a seeming endless chain of failures trying to properly adapt each time. Fortunately most of us do not have the luxury of so much time to devote to random behavior and wasting the time in trying to achieve a goal(s). We realize we are useless and don’t even try or attempt to try at achieving the goal(s).

 

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THE TRUTH ABOUT UNCERTAINTY***

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Uncertainty:  n. believing that a future and/or past subset(s) has less than a 100% probability of existing which may not be zero probability or absolute certainty and/or not believing that one is completely right about a subset(s)

We are frequently uncertain whether something is true or whether something existed in the past or will exist in the future. What is seldom asked is what is the probability of the uncertainty?

If it is a scientific fact then we can frequently say that the uncertainty is zero percent but if it is a political or economic prediction then the uncertainty may be less than 50% or only slightly better than flipping a coin. Politics and economics is a statistical evaluation with rather large margins of error in many cases and many crises situations are not very predictable at all with great uncertainty.

To help us with uncertainty we frequently consult reputable sources of information or try to get our information from humans whom we consider experts, reliable, or trustworthy. We are frequently less convinced of the information given by a stranger than a trusted friend and prestigious publications are preferred over other less known sources. Even prestigious publications and authority figures are sometimes wrong about their views or communications so there is really seldom 100% certainty in most things with the possible exception of scientific facts and observations such as the certainty that the sun rises and sets every day.

Many cling to old and sometimes unpleasant habits because they are frequently more certain than trying to change and being confronted with an uncertain future. Humans are resistant to change and that includes their beliefs and opinions which provide them with certainty and they are frequently reluctant to change because they fundamentally fear the uncertainty of change to their value system and beliefs about prior experiences.

Humans frequently try to impose certainty on things which are fundamentally uncertain such as gambling where winning a few times is assumed to be a winning streak even when it objectively is pure luck and the odds are really against the gambler in the long duration.

Call it a fear of uncertainty or a desire for certainty. They both can lead to purposeful behavior designed to achieve a goal(s). Many new goals have some uncertainty but unless you try to achieve them with purposeful effort the probability of achieving them is zero if you don’t try at all.

Uncertainty and doubt are frequently one and the same thing. There is never 100% certainty or a guarantee that something will exist or is true when it needs to be or preferably for a long duration.

A right or wrong answer on a test is perhaps one of the main areas of life where there seems to be some certainty without doubt.

Perhaps the biggest uncertainty is the lifestyle which we are living because the only certainty is that it will change as the years go by and this creates uncertainty in our lives which some humans worry too much about.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT STABILITY***

stability

Stability: n. a large probability that a subset(s) will not change and/or will change minimally in the future for an unidentified duration

Humans generally like or prefer stability in relationships, jobs, and life in general. We frequently don’t want great change to exist because there is always the uncertainty of new situations which can potentially alter our expectations of a safe existence.

Some humans do like the challenge of change and are not that committed to a stable existence and take more risks in life than the average human.

If things are going relatively well in our lives and we are generally happy with our circumstances then we usually don’t want change which can potentially endanger this happiness and wellbeing. Even if our lives are rather shitty our bad habits are what we choose to live with because we have become accustomed to our shitty stable lifestyle and are usually too lazy to make changes to it.

Our good and bad habits create stability in our lives and many of us subconsciously don’t want this stability to change.

Stability is a measure of how long something lasts without any or minimal changes.

A stable device is both durable and reliable.

A stable human is one behaving predictably with good and bad habits and being emotionally predictable also.

An impulsive erratically behaving human is not stable and has uncontrolled emotional outbursts and unusual impulsive behaviors making behavioral predictions very hard or impossible to do.

Many of us crave stability in our lives but there are some exceptions who thrive on risk taking and doing things which have the potential to disrupt stability in a major way.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT BEG***

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Beg: v. frequently to urgently request a free subset(s) and the requesten’s goal frequently has a low probability of achievement

Humans who have nothing sometimes resort to begging as a way of surviving but their begging requestens are not frequently fulfilled.

Sometimes offspring beg for favors or toys. In very poor countries some orphans and handicapped adults who can’t work beg for food. In wealthy countries some humans beg for money to support a drug or alcohol habit and some beg as a way of life so they don’t have to work.

Begging should be a sign of desperation and helplessness needing immediate attention but the reality in civilized countries is that begging has frequently become a scam designed to prey on your sympathies and get money for free with minimum effort. Instead of true begging it is more accurately called panhandling.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT ATTEMPTS***

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Attempt: v. to try with a relatively low probability of achievement

Attempting is not only trying but trying something which has a relatively low probability of success or trying something with much uncertainty involved. An attempt frequently results in failure but we are tempted by the possibility that success will mean a very beneficial outcome for us. Many attempts are half-hearted or with little commitment and we frequently invest very little of our time, energy, and money because of our sense of uncertainty.

I attempted windsurfing in high winds and rather quickly gave up realizing that I was just not strong enough and coordinated enough to do it successfully. I could have tried with a smaller sail but that meant more investment of time, energy, and money which wasn’t something which I wanted to do on vacation in Hawaii.

 

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THE TRUTH ABOUT HOPE***

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Hope: v. to desire a goal(s) and/or an event(s) which frequently doesn’t have a great probability of existence in the future

We frequently look forward with anticipation to an event(s) which will exist in the future and we feel there is almost certainty that it will exist or happen. When there is some or much doubt about a future event(s) existing we actually are hoping that it will exist.

“Hope you have a nice day” and “I hope everything will go well” is a realization that there is not total certainty in the outcome.

The same truth applies to setting and achieving a goal(s). If we are not very certain that we can achieve a goal(s) then we frequently begin to hope that we will achieve but will not be too shocked if we don’t.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT PROBABILITY

Probability

You will probably eat, go to the bathroom, work, communicate, and drive a car almost every day. These things have a very high probability or are certain.

Less probable things done on a weekly or monthly basis are shopping, filling up a gas tank, going to a movie, going to a restaurant, paying rent or a mortgage, getting paid, and meeting a friend in person.

On a yearly basis you may go on vacation, go to the dentist, and pay your taxes.

In a lifetime you may marry once or twice, have more than a handful of jobs, have health problems, and live in more than a handful of locations. These are rather common things which most of us do and there is a high probability that they will exist or happen in our lives.

Not so probable things are getting the job of your dreams, making much money, marrying a soul mate, and traveling to some truly awesome places in the world.

The truth is that through invested time, effort, and achievement you can sometimes increase the probability of getting what you really want in life. By just living casually day by day and not budgeting your money you will probably not get much of what you think you want out of life.

The probability of things which will exist in your life is determined by chance to some extent because we frequently can’t avoid accidents, medical crises, and sudden financial reversals in our life, especially if we are big risk takers. Opportunity in life sometimes comes by chance but if we haven’t prepared for it then it may pass us by and we may regret it for the rest of our lives.

 

At the two extremes there are humans who let things happen and there are those who try to make things happen in their favor. Most of us let things happen and relatively infrequently try to make important things happen in our lives with careful planning and preparation.

What is the probability that you will live a long and prosperous happy life? No one really knows for sure but if you eat healthy, exercise moderately, never give up, continue to struggle trying to solve everyday problems, and try to learn new useful skills and knowledge then the probability that you will have an interesting life without many regrets increases greatly.

There are probable things in your life which you will frequently and relatively easily do in your life and then there are the improbable things which will just happen to you or happen because of time, effort, achievement, and money spent to make them happen even though the odds against it happening are rather great.

Knowing what the highly improbable things are in life or the impossible things are is important because you can waste a tremendous amount of valuable time, effort, and money trying to make the impossible possible in your life. A life filled with failure, frustration, and depressing disappointment is what awaits you if you don’t set realistic goals and don’t try to achieve possible realistic goals in your life and focus on the impossible instead.

If you don’t have an excellent memory and talent to become a celebrity in the nation or internationally then try to become a celebrity or someone outstanding locally or in an important local profession.

You may only have the potential to become a big fish in a little pond but not have the potential to become a big fish in a big pond. Most of us have to content ourselves with being little fish in a little pond or big pond and that is perfectly acceptable since most of us lead rather normal or mundane lives and have no great urge to excel at anything truly important in society.

Having a happy family and doing a bucket list of interesting things in life is enough of a challenge for most of us and fewer each year are succeeding at even living this kind of a marginal traditional lifestyle.

If you are leading most of your life living the single lifestyle then you can even be content with this because you have the freedom to live life your way without making compromises with a significant other. Not reproducing or not having offspring is also not a disaster because what the polluted world needs least of all is another mouth to feed in a sea of overpopulated humanity.

Death is a certainty for all of us so make the best of life between now and then so that you will have a minimum of regrets on your death bed!!!!!!

If you liked this evergreen truth blog then read more of them, about 900 so far, and one or more of my evergreen truth books, especially COMMON SENSE, rays of truth in a human world filled with myths and deceptions.

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THE TRUTH ABOUT RISK

Risk Mgmt

Risk: v. to try to achieve a goal(s) with an approximated probability but not certainty

Living life is a risky proposition. You can be involved in an accident, can ruin a relationship with bad behavior, and lose a relatively secure job due to technological advancement. Most prefer security and take few risks but there are humans who thrive on risk taking and gamble with their personal lives doing things which would make other humans wince with disbelief.

Some professional sports are risky with a high probability of injury as are new business ventures but thanks to the risk takers progress is made in society which much prefers the status quo approach to life or the don’t rock the boat philosophy.

There is stupid risk taking such as gambling with the odds against you in the long duration and extreme sports such as rock climbing without a rope for security. Many are addicted to an adrenaline rush which comes with risky physical behavior but in most cases there are safety backups which minimize the probability of physical injury to acceptable levels.

Some are so afraid of social disapproval that they don’t readily risk interacting socially with other humans. Some are stuck in unrewarding emotionally devastating jobs yet don’t want to risk changing jobs for fear that they will become unemployed in the near future.

Fear is what keeps us from taking calculated worthwhile risks in life and sometimes it is based on a history of failure at attempting too many risks which didn’t work out to our benefit.

A good principle to follow is take more risks  with potentially good rewards in young adulthood and middle age and take fewer risks, especially financial ones, in old age.

If you are getting bored with life then take a risk and try something new. Learn a new skill, acquire new knowledge, or do something different by tasting a new healthy food, listening to old popular music before your birth, shopping in a new store, or communicating with a new friend.

Most humans are trapped in their bad habits or old habits and never risk venturing forward and trying to find something new to do in their lives. Sometimes doing something new can keep life interesting even into old age when most humans erroneously think that they know it all.

 

If you liked this evergreen truth blog then read more of them, about 900 so far, and one or more of my evergreen truth books, especially COMMON SENSErays of truth in a human world filled with myths and deceptions.

For a complete readily accessible list of blogs and titles go to twitter.com/uldissprogis.

Enjoy!!!!!!

THE TRUTH ABOUT GAMBLING

gambling-addiction

Gamble: v. to take chances where the objective is getting to a goal which usually has much less than a 50% probability of existing and frequently a profit is hoped for

Here is an excerpt from Livescience which warns that gambling can easily destroy your life.

Gambling, too, seems to be in our genes and hard-wired into our brains, which might explain why such a potentially ruinous behavior is so common.

Even monkeys gamble. A study that measured monkeys’ desire to gamble for juice rewards found that even as potential rewards diminished, the primates acted irrationally and gambled for the chance to get a wee bit more.

A study published in the journal Neuron last year found that almost winning activates win-related circuitry within the brain and enhances the motivation to gamble. “Gamblers often interpret near-misses as special events, which encourage them to continue to gamble,” said Luke Clark of the University of Cambridge. “Our findings show that the brain responds to near-misses as if a win has been delivered, even though the result is technically a loss.”

Other studies have also shown that losing causes gamblers to get carried away. When people plan in advance how much to gamble, they’re coldly rational, a study last year found. But if they lose, rationality goes out the window, and they change the game plan and bet even more.

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5 AMAZING THINGS MATH CAN PREDICT

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How to write a successful pop song, which gang is responsible for a crime, where terrorists are hiding bombs, how new drugs will affect humans, and how to keep a crowd of humans from trampling each other are things which math can predict.

For the amazing details read this cracked.com link.

http://www.cracked.com/article_20198_5-things-you-wont-believe-math-can-predict.html

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