February 24^th, 2024 marks two years of the war in Ukraine.

The real reason why there was and is a stalemate in Ukraine is because of poor planning, not enough trained troops, and an inability to mount competent air and land coordinated strategic attacks which make long lightning victory assaults on the enemy possible.

In 2014 Russia easily annexed part of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine along with Crimea. There were no serious sanctions placed on Russia and the west barely reacted. So, Putin and his generals thought invading Ukraine would be a cake walk too with little resistance and in fact deluded themselves into thinking that the Ukrainians would welcome them with open arms as liberators and they would easily install a puppet regime soon thereafter.

Russia at the beginning of the war showed its military incompetence with poorly trained and untrained soldiers and a failed logistics network supplying food, fuel, and ammunition in a highly inefficient way. It was a snowy winter and the military could only use existing roads to maneuver since their supply trucks with tires would get stuck in the snow if they went off road.

The inefficient logistics supply lines and inadequate troops were the reason why the Russians only penetrated and annexed parts of eastern and southern Ukraine but didn’t have enough military to cover and travel to all of Ukraine. What happened was that along the annexed territory border it soon developed into a trench warfare style of fighting like in World War 1 where neither side was able to make a breakthrough with strategic, bold, costly strikes with air and ground superiority.

As unprepared for a long war was Russia so was Ukraine and it was only until this year that there was even a talk about a Ukraine counteroffensive which yielded minimal results so far. With a paucity of western aid Ukraine still has no air and land superiority militarily and is unable like Russia to make bold strategic and costly attacks. An inadequate supply of trained troops, especially in strategic assaults, and inadequate air and land military equipment is what ensures that the stalemate will last for a very long time. The war of attrition only theoretically gives Russia an advantage in the long run unless Putin is deposed and a less aggressive leader replaces him.

I won’t bore you with details but basically the war has morphed into the use of mostly short and long distance drones, artillery, precision rockets, and handheld anti tank weapons. Russia is still being the most aggressive and occasionally attacks with tanks and human clusters of troops which mostly become cannon fodder with Ukrainian defensive actions. So far, the Russians have lost about 400,000 troops and Ukraine about a third that number. Russia will soon need a third mobilization and Ukraine a second mobilization even though both will not be popular in the home country and may lead to political instability.

If Ukraine is to succeed in taking back more of the annexed territory then they will need to have enough troops with strategic training and land and air superiority which they don’t have now and will not have in the foreseeable future. Sadly, all that I see is a seemingly endless war with border skirmishes here and there but without any real tangible results in the long run. If the west tires of supporting Ukraine economically and militarily then Ukraine will become a basket case with very dim prospects and may be forced into an unfavorable negotiated settlement.

What does Ukraine need to take back the annexed territory and win the war? It needs a large supply of relatively cheap precision short range drones like FPV drones to take out military vehicles, artillery, troops, and tanks. Ukraine needs long range precision drones, rockets, and missiles to take out logistic command centers, anti aircraft installations, ammo dumps, bridges, railroads, infrastructure, ships and oil and military plants in Russia itself. Just as important are air defense systems to take out Russian short and long range drones, rockets, and missiles. If Ukraine succeeds in destroying most of the logistics in the occupied territories leaving Russia rather helpless then Ukraine may more easily retake lost territory and eventually win with ongoing western aid and a second mobilization for more troops.

Whatever happens, the war will end someday or be put on hold until it continues again at some point in the future. If by a long shot Russia eventually takes over all of Ukraine then the Baltic States and Poland may be next even though they are a part of NATO. With Putin in power and some Republicans reluctant to support Ukraine economically and militarily, Ukraine’s future is debatable for now.