Monthly Archives: February 2024

Ukraine: Status after 2 years of war

February 24th, 2024 marks two years of the war in Ukraine.

The real reason why there was and is a stalemate in Ukraine is because of poor planning, not enough trained troops, and an inability to mount competent air and land coordinated strategic attacks which make long lightning victory assaults on the enemy possible.

In 2014 Russia easily annexed part of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine along with Crimea. There were no serious sanctions placed on Russia and the west barely reacted. So, Putin and his generals thought invading Ukraine would be a cake walk too with little resistance and in fact deluded themselves into thinking that the Ukrainians would welcome them with open arms as liberators and they would easily install a puppet regime soon thereafter.

Russia at the beginning of the war showed its military incompetence with poorly trained and untrained soldiers and a failed logistics network supplying food, fuel, and ammunition in a highly inefficient way. It was a snowy winter and the military could only use existing roads to maneuver since their supply trucks with tires would get stuck in the snow if they went off road.

The inefficient logistics supply lines and inadequate troops were the reason why the Russians only penetrated and annexed parts of eastern and southern Ukraine but didn’t have enough military to cover and travel to all of Ukraine. What happened was that along the annexed territory border it soon developed into a trench warfare style of fighting like in World War 1 where neither side was able to make a breakthrough with strategic, bold, costly strikes with air and ground superiority.

As unprepared for a long war was Russia so was Ukraine and it was only until this year that there was even a talk about a Ukraine counteroffensive which yielded minimal results so far. With a paucity of western aid Ukraine still has no air and land superiority militarily and is unable like Russia to make bold strategic and costly attacks. An inadequate supply of trained troops, especially in strategic assaults, and inadequate air and land military equipment is what ensures that the stalemate will last for a very long time. The war of attrition only theoretically gives Russia an advantage in the long run unless Putin is deposed and a less aggressive leader replaces him.

I won’t bore you with details but basically the war has morphed into the use of mostly short and long distance drones, artillery, precision rockets, and handheld anti tank weapons. Russia is still being the most aggressive and occasionally attacks with tanks and human clusters of troops which mostly become cannon fodder with Ukrainian defensive actions. So far, the Russians have lost about 400,000 troops and Ukraine about a third that number. Russia will soon need a third mobilization and Ukraine a second mobilization even though both will not be popular in the home country and may lead to political instability.

If Ukraine is to succeed in taking back more of the annexed territory then they will need to have enough troops with strategic training and land and air superiority which they don’t have now and will not have in the foreseeable future. Sadly, all that I see is a seemingly endless war with border skirmishes here and there but without any real tangible results in the long run. If the west tires of supporting Ukraine economically and militarily then Ukraine will become a basket case with very dim prospects and may be forced into an unfavorable negotiated settlement.

What does Ukraine need to take back the annexed territory and win the war? It needs a large supply of relatively cheap precision short range drones like FPV drones to take out military vehicles, artillery, troops, and tanks. Ukraine needs long range precision drones, rockets, and missiles to take out logistic command centers, anti aircraft installations, ammo dumps, bridges, railroads, infrastructure, ships and oil and military plants in Russia itself. Just as important are air defense systems to take out Russian short and long range drones, rockets, and missiles. If Ukraine succeeds in destroying most of the logistics in the occupied territories leaving Russia rather helpless then Ukraine may more easily retake lost territory and eventually win with ongoing western aid and a second mobilization for more troops.

Whatever happens, the war will end someday or be put on hold until it continues again at some point in the future. If by a long shot Russia eventually takes over all of Ukraine then the Baltic States and Poland may be next even though they are a part of NATO. With Putin in power and some Republicans reluctant to support Ukraine economically and militarily, Ukraine’s future is debatable for now.

Bad censorship

Overall, bad censorship can have far-reaching consequences that extend beyond the suppression of specific content, impacting fundamental human rights, democratic principles, the overall health of society, and undermining trust in institutions and individuals. Here are some examples of bad censorship:

Bad political censorship is when governments censor information to control public opinion or suppress dissenting voices. This can lead to citizens being misinformed or deprived of their right to access diverse viewpoints.

Censorship aimed at altering or erasing historical facts or events to fit particular narrative. This distorts collective memory and undermines understanding of past events.

Companies or platforms restricting or removing content based on their own interests or to comply with government regulations. This can limit access to information and impede free expression, mislead consumers, and undermine transparency.

When religious institutions or groups censor information or expression that contradicts their beliefs. This can hinder intellectual inquiry and restrict freedom of conscience.

Suppressing scientific research or information that goes against certain ideologies or economic interests. This can impede progress and lead to the spread of misinformation.

Individuals or groups voluntarily refraining from expressing certain opinions or ideas due to fear of backlash or reprisal. This can inhibit open discourse and lead to a chilling effect on free speech.

Governments or internet service providers blocking or filtering online content, restricting access to information, and limiting freedom of expression. This can hinder communication and innovation in the digital age.

When a government censors criticism or opposition to its policies, it suppresses freedom of expression and undermines democracy.

Blocking the coverage of important events or news stories prevents the public from being informed and can lead to ignorance and misinformation.

Blocking or filtering internet online content restricts access to information and hampers free expression.

Threatening or harassing journalists who report on sensitive issues can lead to self-censorship and undermine investigative journalism.

Restricting academic research or teaching materials inhibit intellectual inquiry and stifles academic freedom.

Altering or censoring historical records distorts the truth and can be used to manipulate public perception.

Social media platforms censoring user-generated content based on arbitrary rules  or faulty algorithms can suppress free speech and limit the exchange of ideas.

Banning or censoring satirical content undermines the role of satire in social commentary and stifles political discourse.

Linguistic censorship such as changing the meaning of words or inventing new words to replace old ones with different meanings restricts communication and can perpetuate discrimination or undesirable hidden ideological ramifications.

Restricting access to certain ideas or viewpoints in educational settings limits critical thinking and intellectual development.

Silencing whistleblower individuals who expose wrongdoing or corruption prevents accountability and undermines democracy.

Suppressing the voices of moral or ethical minority groups perpetuates inequality and marginalization.

Suppressing access to accurate medical information can endanger public health and safety.

Suppressing information about environmental degradation inhibits public awareness and hampers efforts to address these issues which have long term detrimental health and wilderness destruction concerns.

Denying or censoring information about past atrocities prevents reconciliation and perpetuates injustice.

Banning or censoring adult comedic content restricts freedom of expression and limits cultural exchange.

Suppressing protests or demonstrations restricts the right to peaceful assembly and undermines democracy.

In all these cases, censorship can have detrimental effects on society, including hindering freedom of expression, limiting access to information, distorting public discourse, and undermining democratic principles. In an era of increasing bad censorship it is getting increasingly hard to separate fact from fiction and who to trust and who to be wary of.

Most bad censorship originates from flawed moral or ethical humans who lie about information or try to steal or deny you useful and sometimes necessary information and it is generally a descent into lawlessness.

Privacy

Certain human rights are important but not explicitly stated in the Constitution. Let’s review privacy to see if legislation or stricter laws are necessary to ensure that an acceptable level of privacy can and should survive as a human right.

The right to privacy is not guaranteed although the 4th Amendment to the Constitution implies this to some extent-

“The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.”

One could argue that if you are obeying the law then you have nothing to hide and therefore should not be afraid of losing your privacy. However, in the real world there are powerful humans who may want to financially ruin or frame you for political reasons or to remove you as an obstacle to their progress. Some humans may simply want to ruin you for revenge for some imagined insult or subjective transgression. If you have no privacy then an attack on you or a frameup is much easier to achieve.

Financial information such as bank accounts are perhaps at the top of the list on things that you would want to be private. This gives banks tremendous power, especially if they decide to terminate your accounts for political or other secret reasons. This is why it is perhaps smart to have more than one bank where your money is stored in case of an emergency where you can no longer get access to a bank’s accounts over the internet or in person.

Some websites on the internet, especially the big ones like Google, Microsoft,  banks, etc. are getting very serious about two level verifications and verifications that you are a human and not a bot or an impersonator. So, information such as a phone number, street address, email, and social security number may be requested which is information which many would like to keep private. Getting or trying to get this personal information is the reason there are so many scams on the internet and on your cellphone.

Legal issues such as criminal records, lawsuits, or ongoing legal disputes are often kept private to protect one’s reputation and legal rights.

Due largely to the cancel culture mindset in the public arena political affiliations, religious beliefs, and other personal opinions may be kept private to avoid conflicts or unwanted attention.

Many humans choose to keep certain aspects of their social media profiles private, such as their posts, photos, and personal messages, to control their online presence and protect their privacy.

Medical conditions, treatments, and other health-related matters are often kept private to maintain confidentiality and avoid potential stigma or discrimination, especially by insurance agencies.

Some individuals prefer to keep the details of their romantic relationships, sexual orientation, and family dynamics private to maintain boundaries and protect their personal lives.

Some individuals may choose to keep details about their job performance, salary, or career aspirations private to maintain professional boundaries and avoid potential conflicts of interest.

Past experiences such as traumatic events, past mistakes, or other sensitive experiences may be kept private to avoid judgment or emotional distress.

Many may want to keep private mental health struggles such as depression, anxiety, or other mental health conditions which are becoming more numerous with each passing year.

Personal habits such as substance use, diet, or other personal habits may prompt privacy.

Personal possessions such as valuables, collections, or possessions can also be privacy issues.

If you are a minor unconcerned with privacy on social media then you may as an adult regret that you posted damaging evidence which may hurt your career opportunities later on in life.

If you are rather wealthy, unless you are flaunting your wealth to impress others, privacy becomes a major concern and you may choose to live in a gated community or provide extreme security measures for your residence since you have a lot to potentially lose. If you are an average human with average income then privacy may not be as important but you will still have to be on guard for scams of all kinds if you are naïve or too trusting an individual.

Privacy in the age of the internet, GPS, deep fakes, AI, and technological advancements is very hard to maintain. New laws will probably have to be made to ensure a tolerable level of privacy for the average human in the modern era where it seems that the power-hungry government and rich organizations can gain access to any private information which they may want to use against you.